“I expect that even the challengers who lost will be back for another run in the future — they've built infrastructure and name recognition that will help them in the future.
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“And that’s not going to mean that if you raise a lot of money, you definitely will win. That’s never been the case and that’s still not the case. But it does matter for you, it matters for who is seen to be seriously in the mix, who is perceived to be relevant. And in this cycle, just like in most cycles, virtually all contenders who are either successful or are seen as successful show support through early fundraising.
“Among those who run, rich candidates are also more likely to win.
“200 Democrats are running for reelection in primaries and almost every one of them had a younger challenger
“You're only going to focus on the five or 10 where the younger challenger got close or won
“The average for non-incumbent successful candidates in open seat primaries is about three to $400,000 in the first quarter. And if you look at incumbents who lost or struggled, well, their challengers for the most part, are not, you know, broke jokes. They’re raising $200,000 to $300,000 in their first quarter, which resembles what quote unquote “open seat candidates” are raising too in many districts. Maybe not your super wealthy districts like in New York or in California, but in many districts, $300,000 in your first quarter is a really good showing. So I would say money is money, and early money in particular is a prerequisite.
“always had a younger challenger, it's just not a race that you notice
“whether their AI advancements can "fuel the core businesses" that financed their comeback.
“Democratic voters are hungry for a new generation of leaders who can credibly argue they'll fight for change