“it's difficult for pollsters to model an open primary, in which voters can participate in either party's primary regardless of their registration.
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“A lot of the polls were taken too early to capture the movement.
“she's a registered Democrat mostly to participate in primaries
“The bulk of my research is looking at US House primaries, and I think you could probably draw similar conclusions for Senate primaries, except that in most cases, Senate primaries have way more information. So in the case of Michigan, I think people knew largely what the choices were. And after you get to that stage, largely through money and advertising and voter outreach, and campaigning, after that point, money might matter less because voters become more familiar with choices. But this is a really steep hurdle in most congressional primaries.
“it’s tough to poll people who don’t answer their phones
“I think that people forget how low information these contests usually are. Many primary voters really don’t know much about candidates. I think in the Michigan Senate example, that was less true. Money isn’t irrelevant, but when you have other pieces of information, that can override money. And furthermore, in that case, both of the candidates were spending millions of dollars in the primary. I mean, this is just so unique in a lot of ways.
“Part of it is the old saw that we often say but rarely hear: Polling is a snapshot in time
“the distinction between an eligibility requirement and a stated preference does not resolve the underlying legal issue.
